EU: Delayed barley plantings may not be as influential on crop results as spring and summer weather
Detrimental fall weather in Northern Europe prevented the completion of winter wheat plantings, therefore additional acreage became available for spring grains. Thus, in Coceral’s first forecast for 2018, total estimates for the EU-28 barley acreage is 2.37 mln ha (versus 12.15 mln ha last year), of which spring barley 7.36 mln ha (7.00) and winter barley 5.0 mln ha.
The EU-28 barley crop is forecast at 60.34 mln tonnes (58 mln last year), of which spring barley 31.1 mln tonnes, winter barley 29.2 mln tonnes.
The larger forecast concerns all Scandinavian and Baltic countries, e.g. Denmark 690,000 ha (last year 541,000 ha).
MARS had forecast favourable EU average yields of 6.05 tonnes/ha for winter and 4.27 tonnes/ha for spring barley. However, too much rain in February and two frost and snow waves in March made all hectare and production prospects questionable. Winter kill, if any, will be negligible, but yield losses are possible. The planting of spring grains is delayed by 2-3 weeks on the continent and will be late as well in Northern Europe. In France, 70% of spring barley had been planted as of end of March, even 100% in the traditional malting barley regions south of Paris; Germany seeded approximately 20%, a bit more than average in the southwest. In the U.K. plantings as of end of March ranged from 50% in East Anglia to zero in North England and Scotland. Planting dates, however, may turn out less influential on crop results than spring and summer weather, H. M. Gauger GmbH said in their latest report.
The lateness of the season, however, has already provoked changes of planting patterns: the French acreage of spring barley is reported down to 450,000 ha (minus 10%) in favour of maize and sunflower. Spain reports an unchanged acreage of 2.6 mln ha, but anticipates a larger barley crop of 7.4 mln tonnes (5.8 last year), resulting from decent winter and spring rainfalls.
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